What I'm thinking about: The widening gap between active buyers and sellers in the US real estate market.

And notably, the absolute number of active buyers is the lowest on record (data goes back to 2013), outside of a tiny pandemic blip in 2020.

Buyer activity has been on a downward trend for three straight years.

(FYI seller activity is probably underreported due to sellers sitting on the sidelines or pulling listings.)

The Western US and Sunbelt markets (including my home city of Austin) are seeing sellers outnumber buyers by ~2X.

To note, the stronger seller's markets in the Midwest and Northeast aren't sporting 2X ratios in the reverse direction (closer to ~1.5X in the best seller's market), backing up the overall lack of buyers nationally.

This isn't subtle. This is as brutal as a buyer's market gets.

(While I'm sure they're out there, I'm not aware of any real estate investor who isn't feeling the effects of this.)

With all of this in mind, and as we target higher-value, more complex deals, our underwriting process continues to evolve to mitigate as much risk as possible.

How We're Using Reventure to Avoid Disasters

Every deal we fund now runs through the Reventure app (no affiliate relationship) as part of our standard due diligence.

For context: Reventure pulls up-to-date Zillow data, government-level data, and proprietary analytics around real estate trends. Similar to LandID, you could find most of this data for free if you wanted to dig through multiple sources. But Reventure presents it in an easy-to-navigate, layered solution.

I won't break down every single data point available. Instead, I'll focus on the handful we use most and how we're applying them in practice.

The granularity for data ranges from national to zip code level, though not all zip codes are represented due to lack of population or data reporting to build a reliable trend.

We'll use Travis County (which includes Austin, TX) as the primary example

The Austin Story: Boom, Crash, Bottom

Austin was, by most metrics, the #1 boomtown during the COVID bull run.

Then it suffered the worst crash in the country: a 25% drop (and counting) in home values since mid-2022.

The city became a national punching bag, and admittedly, there were growing pains.

But the market has nearly bottomed out. The city's livability has improved. And I'd still rather not be anywhere else for roughly ~8–9 months of the year.

The long-term promise remains, and I see Austin as one of the most technologically progressive cities in the world over the next 50 years, absolute catnip to a futurist like myself.

(The trend has been: Silicon Valley designs it, Austin implements it. At this point, I literally can't drive more than 10 minutes without seeing a driverless Waymo on the road…the shock value still hasn't worn off.)

But short-term? We're still in a correction.

Data Point #1: Home Price Forecast Score

This is the first metric we check.

Reventure's Home Price Forecast score projects anticipated average home values over the next 12 months. They have strong historical accuracy on this metric (you can read about their track record on their website).

Travis County: Anticipated to drop another 6.3% over the next year.

Data Point #2: Overvaluation Percentage

This compares average home values to local median incomes.

At the end of 2021, Travis County was 40% overvalued. Stunning.

Today? 0.9% overvalued.

Incomes increased. Home values dropped. The market is much closer to equilibrium.

By comparison: DFW and Houston haven't corrected as hard as Austin or San Antonio. But they're currently 15–20% overvalued, which tells me to use more caution before investing there.

How We Combine These Two Numbers

While not an exact science, we add the Home Price Forecast and the Overvaluation Percentage together to determine how roughly conservative we should be with pricing.

Travis County example (as of early April 2026):

• 6.3% anticipated drop over the next 12 months
• 0.9% currently overvalued
• Total: 7.2% discount baked into underwriting (we round to 7%)

Translation: if we're buying an asset in Travis County with an anticipated 12-month hold, we need to price our exit at least 7% below current market value to protect the downside.

Another example: a county with home prices expected to increase 4% over the next year, but overvalued by 25% (not uncommon across much of the US right now). In that case, I'd want to be baking in roughly a 20% exit discount from current market value due to lack of affordability.

Other Data Points We Review

• Days on Market (DOM): As of January 2026, Travis County currently averages 87 DOM (the highest on record). You can compare the DOM to the local historical average as well.
• Volume of Home Sales: We compare current throughput to historical averages (or recent trends) to gauge market velocity.
• Population Growth, Income Growth, College Degree Rates: Higher-income and more highly educated populations tend to be more resilient in economic downturns. Plus, to an even greater degree than home-buying, our land buyer demographic needs discretionary income to purchase luxury assets like land.
• Rental Market Data: Austin's rental market crashed alongside home prices. It's now in the top five most affordable rental markets in the US (a complete flip from a few years ago). More relevant for multifamily or BTR (Build-to-Rent) operators, but worth noting.
• Domestic Migration: Travis County lost 13,500 citizens to domestic out-migration in 2024. Many COVID boomtowns have experienced domestic exodus. Population growth was propped up by international migration, but mostly due to federal policy shifts over the past year, net total inbound migration has reversed for the first time in at least 50 years. Regardless of political opinion, the implications of this are certain to be felt in real estate and labor. Side note: most international immigrants are renters initially. Over time, they contribute to organic growth and become future home and land buyers.
• Birth-to-Death Ratio: This is an excellent data point for long-term regional potential and anticipated real estate demand. Austin has a robust 2.48 births for every death (the highest ratio in a major metro in the US outside of Salt Lake City…to the surprise of no one). Compare this to many Florida counties along the Gulf, which attract older populations but aren't particularly friendly for young families. Several have birth-to-death ratios around 0.5 or worse.
• Long-Term Growth Score: Another proprietary Reventure metric indicating where home prices could be headed over the next ~5–10 years based on underlying fundamentals. Travis County has an above-average score due to an educated population, strong organic growth, and anticipated real estate appreciation. (A good sign personally, since my wife and I bought our home in late 2022…)

The Limits of This Data

These data points don't tell the full story.

They relate to home prices (which correlate with land but are not 1:1).

For example, they don't discern between existing home sales and new builds (or even on a more granular level, variance between different builder housing stock). That's a key consideration for entitlement projects and major subdivisions, as one intelligent land operator remarked to me recently.

But reviewing Reventure's market data certainly fills in a lot of gaps.

And in a market this brutal…you can't be too careful.

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Originally published at https://seriousland.capital on January 29, 2026.